External environment

Promising trends in downstream environment

The Downstream environment surprised to the upside in 2015, as both refining and petrochemical margins surged reaching levels well above mid-cycle levels.

Refiners benefited from shrinking oil prices through lower cost of own consumption and losses. Lower oil prices likewise drove the improvement of black product crack spreads. Additionally, the gasoline crack spread was supported by high global demand growth mainly driven by the US and Asia.

The integrated petrochemical margin reached all-time highs. Spiking margins have been supported by the shrinking naphtha price in line with oil. Furthermore, supply was limited by planned and unplanned shutdowns as 19% of European cracker capacity went offline in the second quarter of the year. Import pressure to Europe eased as the USD strengthened 20% against the EUR, coupled with healthy demand from the automotive and the packaging industry throughout the year.